Chinese stocks have been on an uptrend since early April, delivering over 10% returns in US dollar terms. Major indexes like, Nasdaq Golden Dragon, and CSI 300 have all rebounded sharply from their late January lows, gaining nearly 27%, 22%, and 14% respectively.
Also, the April Politburo meeting signaled intentions to tackle housing inventory issues, leading some analysts to anticipate more aggressive supply-side property stimulus. This mix of catalysts has modestly reignited investor interest in Chinese stocks, despite historically light positioning and a mixed global backdrop, UBS said.
Moreover, UBS notes that the downgrade in 2024 consensus earnings growth forecasts may have further to go, adding that the 1Q24 results season is likely to underwhelm market expectations. “In absence of these catalysts, we think Chinese stocks offer limited upside in the near future and we are not confident they can outperform emerging market peers,” said strategists.
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