Already a subscriber?For someone predicting that the world is headed for total war, Neil Howe looks remarkably relaxed as we chat in the Collins Street offices of the Future Fund.
In the second turning, society attacks institutions in favour of personal freedoms – the most recent example of what Howe calls a period of awakening began with the US college protests in the 1960s. It’s easy to dismiss all this as backwards-looking theorising. But it’s worth noting that in 1997, Strauss and Howe wrote their first book on the fourth turning; they predicted some sort of event around 2005 would smash the US economy and start a long era of crises.
, or even both sides, will see this as their last chance to stop their opposition, a sort of line-in-the-sand moment. History says even a minor issue can create this mood; the American Revolution, Howe points out, started over a ridiculously silly fight over a largely justifiable tax on tea. But history driven by generational shifts help explain why market watchers listen to Howe, who did a “lunch and learn” session with Future Fund staff this week.Inflation and financial repression – “Forcing people to just hold public debt and chew it,” in Howe’s words – are always part of late fourth turning periods, he says.