The reasoning was that high yields would start to come down and the Fed would cut rates in September, potentially too little too late.
Long bonds have sold off from the October 2023 highs, which back then, led to a massive rally in equities.The risk seems to lean more towards stagflation rather than recession.The July 6-month calendar range high and low is almost identical to the January 6-month calendar ranges.Right now, besides failing the July range high, HYG does not look too bad.Hence, here is the plan.
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