To no one’s surprise, volatility has returned in a big way, and if the typical market playbooks of the past 30 years continue to work, then what we have seen regarding the yen carry trade to this point may only be the beginning.
Instead, they waited until the US data began to soften, and to add insult to injury, they intervened in the market on July 11, the day of the weak USThe idea here is that if the US data continues to suggest the Fed is going to cut rates and as interest rate spreads contract; we will continue to see the unwind of the carry trade as the Japanese yen appreciates versus the
There is no liquidity . That is a warning sign for the market because this market isn’t going higher unless liquidity rebuilds and those spreads narrow . Meanwhile, the money from the Bank Term Funding Program is set to start rolling off significantly over the remainder of 2024. Up until now, it has been relatively predictable to estimate.
The same thing happened in 2018 when reserve balances dropped, and margin balances peaked and then went down. This led to a significant period of volatility, and the market didn’t go anywhere from January 2018 until October 2019. Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 has mostly filled the gap from last Monday’s drop and hasn’t done much else. The big question is what happens next because if the Nikkei starts falling again, it could be a bad sign for markets worldwide.
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