Hopes for an economic soft landing are once again powering U.S. stocks higher, as encouraging data relieve recession worries following a brutal sell-off earlier this month.
“There was a real growth scare that had emerged,” said Mona Mahajan, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones. “Since then, what we’ve seen is the economic data has actually come out in a much more positive light.” As of late Thursday, futures tied to the Fed funds rate showed traders pricing a 25% chance that the central bank will lower rates by 50 basis points in September, down from around 85% on Aug. 5, CME FedWatch data showed. The probability of a 25 basis point cut stood at 75%, in line with expectations that the Fed will kick off an easing cycle in September.
“We think a key highlight of Powell’s speech will be the acknowledgement that progress on inflation has been sufficient to allow the start of rate cuts,” economists at BNP Paribas said in a note on Thursday. Analysts at Capital Economics believe that a U.S. economic soft landing will support the artificial intelligence fervor that helped drive markets higher.
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