There are growing fears that Iranian oil infrastructure could potentially be targeted, pushing oil prices higher. However, the move in prices is fairly modest when considering the amount of supply at risk. Oil prices firm amid growing supply risks ICE Brent is trading more than 8% higher than it was before Iran’s missile attack on Israel.
Almost a third of global seaborne oil trade moves through the Strait of Hormuz and while some pipeline infrastructure means that a portion of oil flows could be diverted to avoid the Strait, it still leaves in the region of 14m b/d of oil supply at risk. A significant disruption to these flows would be enough to push oil prices to new record highs, surpassing the record high of close to $150/bbl in 2008.
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