. Growth remains resilient, inflation is sticky, and the labor market shows unexpected vigor, all pointing to the need for a more cautious approach.in the third quarter of 2024, based on the Commerce Department’s initial GDP estimate. Growth could have been even stronger if not for the lingering impact of a potential port workers’ strike, which likely inflated import numbers temporarily. Trade and inventory fluctuations shaved 0.
—the fastest since early 2023. Goods spending surged by six percent, while durable goods spending jumped eight percent, reflecting broad-based consumer confidence. Meanwhile, final sales to domestic private purchasers rose 3.2 percent, indicating solid underlying demand within the private sector.at a respectable 3.3 percent annual rate. Particularly notable was the 11.1 percent spike in equipment investment, signaling companies’ willingness to bet on future productivity.
The Fed, unfortunately, finds itself boxed into a corner. After making an aggressive cut in September,And, if Donald Trump wins the election next week, avoiding a cut might even appear politically motivated. So, the Fed now has to cut in November—and maybe even again in December—even though the economic data calls for a pause..
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