Good morning, Jason Kirby here, with The Globe and Mail’s economics team, and today I come bearing charts. Lots and lots of charts. It’s The Globe’s annual year-ahead charts-to-watch package – chartapalooza if you will – and I’ll unpack a few of the highlights for what they say about the economy Justin Trudeau is leaving behind and the economy Donald Trump is about to turn on its head.
It’s hard to narrow this year’s chart collection down to a single big theme, but “transition” is a common thread. The next federal election, whenever it comes this year, means almost certain change in direction for the country. Inflation has come down, and interest rates have followed, but what now? This is also the year when tighter immigration rules imposed in 2024 will be felt most profoundly.Trump makes repeated appearances throughout the chart collection.
The vast majority of the charts were submitted before Trudeau said he would go, but the polls have been screaming “change” for months. Whoever the next prime minister is, they face tough spending decisions, as former Bank of Canada deputy governor Lawrence Schembri points out: Struggling parents caught between rising costs and work obligations have clamoured for affordable daycare spaces, but as economist David Macdonald shows, so far the expansion of spots has lagged provincial targets:
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