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Next recession: New risks to economy based on 100 years of history - Business Insider

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Goldman Sachs studied a century of history to nail down the 5 biggest triggers of recessions — and concluded that 2 pose risks we've never seen before

There's some good news amid the gloom. Since World War II, the length of time the economy has spent in a recession has been shrinking, Goldman Sachs data shows.

In addition, the manufacturing sector now contributes far less to economic growth than services, which adds about two-thirds. But since then, price fluctuations have been having a diminishing impact on how the economy fares. The shale boom of the 2010s was partly responsible for this cushioning, as investment in the infrastructure used to extract and refine oil offset the hit to consumption that came about because of higher prices.

Despite the clean-up efforts of banks and regulators after the recession, financial risk remains "an important threat in principle," according to Hatzius.

 

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