The drop assumes the European Union’s move to halt crude oil imports will be imposed in six months and the petroleum product import ban in eight months, and excludes any restrictions on shipping insurance, the agency said.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February upended global energy flows and prompted an almost immediate oil import ban from the U.S. and U.K. when the market was already tight. Other buyers voluntarily shunned the country’s oil. Overall supply shortages have kept oil prices over $100 a barrel since the war started and sent retail fuel prices to record highs.
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