Gold mining stocks appear very unloved at the moment. As measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, gold equities fell 18.5% year-to-date through the end of July, underperforming both the underlying metal and the S&P 500. From the index’s recent high set in August 2020, gold miners are off about 42.5%, putting them deep in bear territory.
There’s more to the investment case than market timing. Systemic risks abound right now that, in my view, could favor allocations to physical gold and gold mining stocks. Those risks include sustained inflation, a potential global recession, looming food and energy crisis, and an escalation of hostilities in Eastern Europe.
As I’ve shown you many times before, gold often shares an inverse relationship with real rates. When inflation-adjusted rates have turned negative, the precious metal has tended to trade up as investors dumped government bonds in favor of gold and other hard assets. Year-to-date through the end of July, the only major currencies to have increased in value relative to the dollar are the Russian ruble and Brazilian real. Most currencies have decreased in value, with the Turkish lira having lost a little over a quarter of its value compared to the greenback.
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