'People will freak out': The cloud boom is coming back to Earth, and that could be scary for tech stocks

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Microsoft stock was getting slammed late Tuesday by slower cloud growth. Read what columnist tpoletti wrote back in July about the eventual cloud downturn.

Cloud computing is widely viewed as a recession-resistant business, but the theory has not really been tested, as cloud-service providers have not experienced a major economic downturn since becoming a core element of of tech infrastructure.

Heading into the reporting season of the June-ending quarter, analysts’ estimates for the cloud businesses of Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Alibaba all show various degrees of slowing on a year-over-year basis, according to estimates compiled by FactSet. In addition, July and August are typically slower, and any forecasts will add the summer slowdown into the mix.

More from Therese Poletti: The 2022 tech wreck is not the same as the dot-com bust, but investors will still want to change their game In 2019, spending on cloud infrastructure cooled, after massive infrastructure spending in 2018. For now, Gartner is projecting a 3% rise in overall IT spending in 2022, and it forecasts that spending on data-center systems will jump 11.1%.

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