The Vladimir Arsenyev tanker at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia.The plan is actually partly designed to offset much tougher restrictions put in place under EU sanctions on Russia.
With the current pricing being discussed, this seems to be much more of an inflation reduction effort than a Russian revenue reduction onePeople familiar with the discussions now expect the EU to impose a limit on the duration of any ban. While there have been few signs of a price spike, some analysts believe the market has become complacent about the potential supply risks stemming from the new EU sanctions and price cap.
Others argue that the price cap itself could trigger price increases. The frictions now being built into Russia’s oil trade will be immense, with “significant impact” on oil markets next year, analysts at Bernstein said The impact could be even more dramatic. The Kremlin has already said it will withhold supplies to countries co-operating with the price cap. The U.S. Treasury argues Moscow will not go further and will still seek to sell its oil to other countries as curtailing production would risk long-term damage to its oilfields.
Others in the industry also point to Russia’s capacity to make trouble elsewhere. The one million bpd pipeline carrying Kazakh oil through Russia to the Black Sea, already shut by Moscow briefly in recent months for unusual weather reasons, could be a target. Russian proxy forces maintain a presence in Libya’s volatile oil sector too.