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SHRINKING ECONOMY: Rolling blackouts dim business confidence, but solar panels a ray of contractor light – RMB/BER

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The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) declined further in the first quarter (Q1) of this year, dimmed of course by the relentless onslaught of rolling power cuts. One of the few bright spots was a surge in confidence among contractors and sub-cont...

The BCI declined to 36 in Q1 from 38 in Q4 last year, when the economy contracted 1.3%. This is further evidence, if any was needed, that the economy is shrinking again this quarter, meaning it has fallen into recession.

“Fixed investment to expand existing production capacity also suffered as demand weakened and capital expenditure budgets were increasingly absorbed by alternative energy generation measures.” “Confidence of building contractors, the group which is captured in the RMB/BER BCI, declined marginally from 46 to 43 … Strikingly, if we also consider sub-contractors – particularly electricians – confidence and activity in the overall building sector rose massively thanks largely to the installation of backup power. At least for some, load shedding seems to have a silver lining,” RMB said.

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