Fed pivot may not mean a stock market rally, says David Rosenberg

Stock-market investors may be hoping the Federal Reserve will soon pause its interest rate hikes, delivering rate cuts before year-end, but history shows that such a shift doesn’t guarantee a stock-market rally, according to Wall Street veteran David Rosenberg.

Based... Stock-market investors may be hoping the Federal Reserve will soon pause its interest rate hikes, delivering rate cuts before year-end, but history shows that such a shift doesn’t guarantee a stock-market rally, according to Wall Street veteran David Rosenberg. Based on historical data, the average time between the S&P 500 SPX peak and the onset of recession is about 6 1/2 months, according to a Wednesday report by Rosenberg. And it takes an average of 12 1/2 months for the S&P 500 to go from peak to trough, which usually happens before a recession ends.

Rosenberg said he expects the Fed to start cutting rates in the fourth quarter, which would mark the onset of an easing cycle.

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