US companies hoarding workers even as economy cools

When storms hammered California’s farms last winter, Kevin Kelly knew his small factory outside San Francisco would soon see demand wilt for the plastic bags it churns out for pre-cut salads and other produce.

Employers across the US are making a similar calculation. Faced with the tightest job market in decades, many have become less trigger-happy with layoffs, even in the face of a cooling economy. Indeed, a monthly report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas on Thursday, August 3, showed that announced layoffs hit their lowest level in nearly a year last month as companies were “weary of letting go of needed workers.

Speaking to investors last December, Alan H. Shaw, the CEO of Norfolk Southern, said part of a larger strategy aimed at making the railroad company more competitive with trucking would be to avoid the cycle in which workers are furloughed during downturns and then rehired when the economy improves. Shaw said difficulties bringing back workers hurt the Atlanta-based firm’s ability to serve customers during the pandemic boom.

US job openings fell to the lowest level in more than two years in June, according to the monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, released by the Department of Labor this week, but they remained at levels consistent with a tight labor market. Layoffs and involuntary separations hit a six-month low.

The survey showed most CEOs expect the next downturn to be short and shallow. “If that’s the case,” said Peterson, “it makes sense to hold onto your labor force.”Arnold Kamler, the CEO of Kent International, learned that the hard way. Demand for the bicycles that the company imports and manufactures at a small factory in South Carolina was insatiable during the pandemic.

Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter in Los Angeles, said employers tell her they are retaining workers they wouldn’t normally keep because of concerns they will have problems ramping up. But she sees a limit to this. “I don’t think it’s the case that many businesses are holding onto workers who are idle,” she said.

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