Labor Day Progress Report: A Shift Down to Cruising Speed for US Job Market

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A pre-Labor Day flurry of data last week indicated the US job market is shifting to a lower gear but still capable of delivering enough fuel to keep the economy from sputtering.

Friday’s jobs report showed a 187,000 increase in August employment after downward revisions in the prior two months. Earnings growth cooled, but workers were also able to put in longer hours. More people entered the labor force too, helping bring supply and demand into better balance.

The index of aggregate weekly payrolls — which combines the length of the workweek, wages and the number of people on private-sector payrolls — advanced at an annualized 7.2% pace over the last three months, the fastest since November. That ratio and a decline in the number of persons who voluntarily left their jobs — both closely followed by economists and Federal Reserve officials to gauge potential inflationary pressures — suggest labor-market conditions are easing. The quits rate, which reflects job quitters as a share of total employment, dropped to 2.3% — the lowest since the start of 2021.

 

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