While there’s been a lot of chatter over the past few days about the, the numbers do not really support the negative interpretation.
The revisions change the underlying trend for job growth. If the numbers had remained unrevised and September had come in at the consensus forecast of 170,000, the three-month average gain would be for payroll growth of 171,333. With the revision and the better-than-expected September figure,The economy only needs to generate around 75,000 to 100,000 jobs a month to keep up with population growth.
This suggests that the September hiring surge cannot be written off because it is comprised of part-time work. If that were true, we’d expect at least some downward pressure on average hours worked., from which we get our headlines about the level of unemployment and the unemployment rate. Where the establishment report is based on surveys of employers reporting on their payroll numbers, this survey is based on surveys of households reporting on the employment status of people living there.
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