The “golden age of gas”, as the International Energy Agency called it in 2011, is retreating in the rearview mirror. But it looks unlikely to fade quickly.
Separate agreements have been signed this month that allow for LNG supplies from Qatar, Australia’s arch-rival in exports, to Italy, France and the Netherlands for another 27 years. By the time supplies start, they bake in LNG supplies past 2050, Europe’s targe date for net-zero emissions. “I guess the curves will cross at one point,” Schmidt says. “Whether that’s 2027, ’28 or ’30, we don’t know yet, but definitely there will be the time when hydrogen will be very competitive.
LNG fares better than pipeline gas, but FACTS and MST Marquee, another respected research firm, argue that the IEA’s numbers are conservative, and at least partly politically driven. Even the IEA’s most optimistic forecast for demand in 2050 is nearly 15 per cent down on its estimate of two years ago. And it now estimates that thanks to a big increase in approved new projects over the past few years, enough capacity is in the wings to meet demand in that scenario out to 2040, some 10 years later than projected in 2021.
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