Stocks meet fewer cuts

S&P 500 could only move sideways thanks to hot GDP, and the heavy buying into the close was equally decisively reversed. Tech had gone nowhere, not even industrials – just financials on still 61% Jun cut odds rose, but the overall sectoral perspective was a defensive, risk-off one. The pause button is hitting the rally, and even before the core PCE data, Bitcoin was pointing lower.

So, we have expanding and not slowing down economy, Powell walking a tight rope in election year, the Treasury running sizable deficits outside of a recession, very much loose financial conditions, accommodative global liquidity and the great debate being not whether there would be more rate hikes in response to inflation developments, but whether the rate cutting cycle starts in Jun really for sure , and whether there would be 3 or only 2 rate cuts this year – all amid still soft landing...

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