Market Factors: It’s Time to Hedge As Signs of Fragility Continue To Emerge

With this edition we detail a prominent strategist’s advice to hedge against another tech wreck, a surprisingly optimistic economist expecting a “new golden age” and a Spotify project identifying the most streamed albums released every year since 1960.BofA Securities U.S. equity and quant strategist Savita Subramanian advised clients to thread the needle with portfolio allocations, avoiding both megacap Magnificent Seven stocks and small caps in favour of the equal weight S&P 500.

The equal weighted S&P 500 is trading at an extreme discount to the conventional benchmark on forward PE, levels approaching the late 1990s tech bubble. But according to equity risk premium the equal weighted benchmark should trade at a 12 per cent premium PE ratio to the conventional S&P 500. Ms. Subramanian is clearly recommending clients hedge against the possibility of a painful technology slump with this report. Small caps are not a great candidate for the same purpose as, even if attractively valued on the surface, the asset class remains mired in an earnings recession. Market history also implies that small caps would be hit hard if U.S. economic recession fears intensify.

Economics is known as the dismal science thanks to its dour founding fathers like Thomas Malthus but British- Venezuelan academic Carlota Perez can offer an antidote. The University College London professor developed a comprehensive model of the economics of innovation and believes in the potential for an imminent “new golden age” thanks to the digital revolution that began in the 1990s.

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