The business cycle should influence markets more than the election: Morgan Stanley

As the U.S. approaches another presidential election, investors are naturally curious about how the outcome might affect the markets.

“Our cross-asset strategy team’s study of the run-up to past elections shows no clear pattern of market behavior in election years, even when screening for different election and macro conditions,” the bank stated. For instance, they state that energy and telecom might struggle under the Democrats' plan to extend tax breaks, while clean tech could benefit from sustained appropriations under the Inflation Reduction Act.

They believe this could occur due to potential tariffs and heightened geopolitical uncertainty, which might lead to more dovish central bank policies overseas.

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