US PCE data keeps Fed rate cut hopes alive as inflation moves towards 2% target.US jobs data release is a key market-moving event in the week ahead, potentially impacting the Fed rate cut decision.data kept Fed rate cut hopes on track as inflation continues on its way to its 2% target. Consumer spending remains strong and this has kept pricing for a 50 bps cut steady.
Japanese data continues to improve, setting the stage for continued rate hikes by the Bank of Japan . The week ahead sees Japan sharing data on capital spending, labor earnings, and household spending, all expected to point to an economic recovery. All eyes are on the US this week as the NFP and jobs report takes center stage. This has become a major release after the largest downward revision in Jobs numbers since the Global Financial Crisis. However, the past week’s GDP and PCE data restored some confidence but the labor data remains the kingmaker ahead of the September 18 Fed meeting.
The DXY hit a 13-month low this week, trading at levels last seen in July 2023. The Greenback enjoyed a late-week renaissance of sorts, bouncing aggressively out of a key area of support at the 100.50 level and avoiding a retest of the psychological 100.00 handle. This would mean that the DXY is now on track to either push on or if there is a pullback it will likely be to print a higher low above the 100.50. WIll the NFP data facilitate a break below the 100.50 handle? This is a possibility but it would require a significant downside miss in my opinion for such a move to occur.
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