Would a Kroger and Albertsons merger drive grocery prices up or down? The answer is complicated

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The Federal Trade Commission and several states’ attorneys general, including California Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta, say the deal would eliminate competition that...

Federal and state officials are fighting to stop the grocery mega-merger, saying less competition will mean higher, not lower, prices for groceries.A shopper visits Albertsons on Crenshaw Boulevard in Los Angeles. Kroger plans to buy Albertsons in a deal valued at $24.6 billion, but government regulators want to stop the biggest proposed supermarket merger in U.S. history.As grocery giants Kroger and Albertsons push to carry out the largest proposed supermarket merger in U.S.

“In the grocery market, it’s really hard to tell what prices are going to be in two months because there are so many variables that go into grocery pricing,” said Donald Polden, a law professor and former dean at Santa Clara University. Weather conditions overseas, for example, might affect the ability to get certain products and that could impact the price.

John Mayo, a professor of economics, business and public policy at Georgetown University, said the costs of ingredients, worker wages, management efficiency and competition all play roles in determining food prices. Mayo referenced a 2012 study by the FTC Bureau of Economics that examined how prices changed after mergers in the grocery industry. The study looked at the relationship between prices and a measurement used to determine market competitiveness. Some of the mergers resulted in estimated price increases, others caused price decreases or had relatively little change in prices, economists found.

Bright yellow signs throughout the San Leandro store displayed the latest deals for Safeway members. Buy one value pack of chicken wings and get the other pack for free, one sign read. The store on Washington Avenue is among those to be sold if the merger goes through.San Leandro resident Alana Chand, 56, said she was taken aback when she saw cage-free eggs selling for around $8. Egg prices have been rising as a bird flu outbreak limits supply.

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