The firm's analysis, which examines the relationship between the S&P 500 and the price of gold, suggests that the market is at a critical juncture.
Historically, the S&P 500 has outperformed gold by around 1.3% annually, reflecting growing economic efficiency. Currently, Gavekal’s efficiency-to-scarcity ratio sits precariously at its seven-year moving average, raising concerns about a potential downturn.They emphasize that similar market signals have preceded previous bear markets, which have resulted in significant declines.
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