China will hit peak copper around 2030, industry group says

China’s copper demand will peak around the end of this decade, according to a state-backed government researcher, offering a potential counterpoint to bullish views on the metal’s prospects.

China’s demand growth in the five years up to 2030 will average 1.1%, down from 3.9% in the five years to 2025, Antaike analyst Yang Changhua said at the group’s conference in Wuhan. The copper intensity of renewables investment is falling as industries bid to reduce usage or find alternative materials, he said.

Prices this year reached a record above $11,000 a ton amid emerging signs of supply tightness, but have since drifted lower as China’s economy struggles and manufacturing in the rest of the world remains soft. The metal was little changed on Friday near $9,500 on the London Metal Exchange, heading for a fourth weekly decline.

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