S&P 500 Earnings: The Fallacy of Valuation and Non-US Investments

Credit spreads – quite remarkably – continue to tighten, as high-yield credit spreads, which peaked in mid-September ’24 around +344 – 350 the equivalent Treasury, have now narrowed to +266, as of last Friday’s data.Credit spreads continue to hover around “all-time tights” so just be aware of the relative and absolute valuation within the corporate bond space.Last week the forward 4-quarter estimate slid to $263.36 versus last week’s $263.58 and early October’s $266.

Found this today, Monday, December 9th on X. Never seen the comparison before. More of a market-timing signal. The left-hand side of the page shows the PE discount to the US for the MSCI, and it’s way beyond the normal standard deviation range. The right-hand side of the graphs shows the relative dividend yields between the two asset classes.CNBC’s frequent guest Stephanie Link showing non-US small-cap value, vs US large-cap growth, above. From a December 6 ’24 post.This post wasn’t meant to torture readers but to show how talk of “valuation” can rather one-sided.

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