EU Mid-Market Update: Traders are poised to return with full force next week as January's road ahead is highlighted by Trump's return to office and the beginning of the Q4 earnings season; a House Speaker vote is scheduled in a few hours. Notes/observations - Europe is marginally lower, with the French CAC40 once again underperforming as luxury stocks fall again after a Financial Times report that the PBOC would cut key interest rates at an appropriate time in 2025.
The automobile sector is seeing the most downside, while financial services are the biggest upward mover. Overall, the narrative remains unchanged. The light calendar for data and lack of speakers means eyes are looking more toward January for catalysts. - Of the data that did release, the German job report was strong, with smaller than expected unemployment growth and a lower rate. Conversely, UK data was weak, with a miss in consumer credit, net lending, and mortgage approvals. Some analysts were surprised by the miss in mortgage approvals after higher-than-expected house prices earlier in the week. - Friday's focus is likely to be on US political developments with House Speaker Johnson facing his first reelection vote; any difficulties in reelecting Johnson could delay the certification of the November election and may hint at upcoming issues with passing all of Trump's legislative agenda in the House, where the GOP now holds a very tiny majority. - European yields are muted. Asia's bond trade was more electric as China bond yields continued their decline. 10-year bond yields are now down >100bps over the last year. - Citi US Economic Surprise Index turns negative for the first time since early autumn ahead of next week's jobs report; the first Cleveland's Fed Inflation Nowcast for January projects US CPI y/y to stay flat versus the one forecasted for December. - Asia closed mixed with the KOSPI underperforming +1.8%. EU indices are -0.2% to -0.9%. US futures are +0.3-0.4%. Gold -0.1%, DXY -0.2%; Commodity: Brent -0.5%, WTI -0.5%; Crypto: BTC -0.3%, ETH -0.8
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