Major Currency Fluctuations and Market Outlook

Major currencies experienced significant fluctuations yesterday due to a notable increase in the Euro following a stronger-than-expected PMI release. The Dollar Index dipped to a low of 107.75 but has since recovered, surpassing 108 once more. While above 108, targets of 110-111 remain plausible in the near term. The Euro's upward momentum is currently capped at 1.0450; only a sustained rise past 1.0500 can challenge the prevailing bearish outlook.

EURINR is anticipated to trade within a range of 88-89/90 in the immediate future. USDJPY has climbed past 158 and, if this upward trend persists, could reach 160 or higher in the coming sessions. The Pound and EURJPY face immediate resistance levels at 1.26 and 165, respectively. A strong break above these levels could propel both higher in the near term. USDCNY is projected to gradually move towards 7.35. USDINR experienced a slight decline in the NDF yesterday, but we anticipate the downside to be limited to 85.70/65, with our target of 86 remaining intact. Keep an eye on the US Trade Balance scheduled for today. US Treasury yields remain elevated and stable. The overall outlook remains bullish, and yields could rise further in the future. German yields are gradually increasing. A sustained upward momentum from here is necessary for a prolonged rise; otherwise, there is a risk of a decline. The 10Yr GoI has dropped significantly. The view is bearish, with further declines anticipated. The Dow Jones failed to hold above 43000 and, while below 43000-43500, the index could decline towards 42000-41800 in the near term. DAX has surged past 20200, and a follow-through rise could push the index higher towards 20500-20700, reversing our earlier expectation of a drop to 19600/500. Nifty took a hit and fell to 23600 following reports of two HMVP cases. It could fall further to 23500-23000 if selling pressure intensifies today. Nikkei soared above 40200 following reports that the US President may implement less aggressive tariffs. If these gains are sustained, the index could target 41000-42000. Shanghai remains stable, fluctuating around 3200. While below 3250, it could decline further to 3150

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