This year, some analysts are more optimistic about gold prices, although not drastically so, due to the absence of significant cuts in the US government's massive debt. Trump's election victory in November has created a potentially favorable scenario for gold, with the expectation of increased US fiscal spending and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
Mike Haigh, Head of Commodities Research at Societe Generale bank, stated on January 6, 2025, that Mike certainly sounds positive, but he's only forecasting a move to $2900 for gold, and most bank analysts seem to be targeting only the $2700 to $2800 zone. A range trade for gold could lead to numerous 20% surges in 2025 for miners and silver, potentially resulting in substantial investor profits. Gold prices surged from $1810 to $2790 while the dollar remained relatively stagnant against a basket of other currencies. This suggests that Trump's trade policies are focused on the dollar's strength relative to other currencies rather than on gold. He aims to encourage businesses and consumers to trade in US dollars while maintaining a weak dollar to alleviate the country's significant trade deficit. The US workforce is relatively small compared to countries like China and India. Without the dollar's dominance in global trade, the US economy would likely collapse under the weight of its government debt, and other countries would trade among themselves. Western money managers tend to focus on the fact that COMEX gold contracts do not pay interest to buyers. They prefer to buy gold when interest rates decline. However, the past year has seen increased global attention on the US government's massive debt and the trend of de-dollarization. Despite rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, interest rates have risen after each reduction in a free market environment. When government debt reaches a critical threshold, interest rates rise and the currency weakens
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