of crude oil and exported about 3 million bpd of crude oil, according to the US Energy Information Administration . However, those figures are going to change as the global slowdown affects not only US supply, but global demand.
Already in June 2020, the US imported 27,885 fewer barrels than the same month last year and exported 347,000 barrels less, all according to data from the EIA. "If you look at the supply/demand structure for the US export market, it's extremely fragile, with the demand picture quite fluid," says Phil Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. "Exports peaked in March, and these were most likely orders or commitments made pre-pandemic, and they've come down significantly from then."
Even though US rig counts are down more than 70%, demand still seems to be the main factor in this new dynamic.It is reflected in seasonal price patterns as well. Since 2000, WTI crude oil futures prices have risen from January 1 through August 31 16 of 20 times, reflecting the anticipation and the reality of increased demand from the summer driving season. In 2020, prices were down in that period 30.8%.
"What really concerns me going forward with regard to seasonality, is looking ahead to Q4. As we move into the northern hemisphere's winter, the northern hemisphere is where 90% of the world's population lives," Norland says. "The evolution of the pandemic over the next few months I think is going to have a really big impact on oil demand one way or the other as we move into the fourth quarter which is typically much weaker quarter in terms of demand.
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