Why the bond market might not suffer another taper tantrum when the Fed signals it’s ready to move

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Investors are bracing for the day when the Federal Reserve lays out plans to begin scaling back the monthly bond purchases at the heart of its effort to hold...

A test looms for financial markets as more Federal Reserve officials signal they’re ready to start thinking about the day they’ll need scaling back their program of $120 billion a month in bond purchases.

After all, investors who are convinced the only thing holding up asset prices, particularly bonds, is the Fed’s buying will note that the central bank’s assets have doubled to around 36% of gross domestic product since the start of 2013, Barrow said. And the liquidity crunch that accompanied the March rise in Treasury yields is likely stoking concerns that if a taper prompts Treasury holders to head for the exit, “the door might be a very small one indeed.

Those include a number of rate increases from December 2015 through the end of 2018, with the Fed going beyond tapering in 2018 to actually shrinking its balance sheet by letting maturing bonds roll off. Read: Fed reverse repo facility sees record $485.3 billion of overnight demand from Wall Street awash in cash

 

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