Boston Beer stock suffers record selloff as analysts slash targets after big earnings miss

Shares of Boston Beer Co. Inc. suffered a record plunge to a one-year low Friday, as an avalanche of analysts slashed their price targets following the alcoholic beverages company’s biggest earnings miss in years.

“ “[T]o be totally honest, we were surprised at the sharpness and the suddenness of the change in trajectory.” ” Revenue rose 33% to $602.8 million, but was 8.3% below the FactSet consensus of $657.6 million, the biggest miss since the company missed revenue expectations by 9.1% in the third quarter of 2016.

Chairman and Founder James Koch said on the post-earnings conference call with analysts that Truly seltzer sales were at a “really choppy” point, as the company was lapping “crazy times” last year when the COVID-19 pandemic led to pantry loading. “So, it’s a really, really murky crystal ball,” Koch said. “It’s more like looking into a bowling ball. You can’t see much.”

“Despite the recent pullback in the stock, we see a negative risk-reward as key growth engine slows sharply/competition ramps with visibility clearly constrained, Street [estimates] still too high, and ~40x [price-to-earnings ratio] at risk of further de-rating as expectations further reset,” Grundy wrote.

Maybe if it didn’t taste awful…

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