The Stock Market Slide Is Unlikely to Budge the Fed From Tightening

DataTrek Research compared December 2018 with January 2022 and found some key differences:A slide in the Dow Jones industrials of 14.7% then to 6.9% now.Investment grade bond spreads at 159 basis points then to 100 now."By any measure as the Fed looks to assess capital markets stress ... we are nowhere near the same point as in 2018 where the central bank reconsidered its monetary policy stance," DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas wrote in his daily note.

"Put another way: until we get a further selloff in risk assets, the Fed will simply not be convinced that raising interest rates and reducing the size of its balance sheet in 2022 will more likely cause a recession rather than a soft landing," he added.Major averages dipped more than 2% by midday, withMarket veteran Art Cashin said he thinks the Fed could take notice of the recent selling and move off its tightening position if the carnage continues.

"The Fed is very nervous about these things. It might give them a reason to slow their step a little bit," Cashin, the director of floor operations for UBS, said on CNBC's".""I don't think they want to be too overt about it. But believe me, I think they will have the market's back if things turn worse, if we don't bottom here and turn around and they keep selling into late spring, early summer.

Still, Bank of America strategists and economists said in a joint note Monday that the Fed is unlikely to budge.on Wednesday to signal that"every meeting is live" regarding either rate hikes or additional tightening measures. Markets already are pricing in at least four hikes this year, and Goldman Sachs said the Fed could hike at every meeting starting in March if inflation doesn't subside.

While the Fed isn't likely to set concrete plans, both Bank of America and Goldman Sachs see the Fed nodding toward the end of its asset purchases in the next month or two and an

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U.S. stock futures return to losing ways with big Fed decision, earnings wave on tapU.S. stock futures fell Monday morning, continuing the downtrend that has pressured stocks this year.
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