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U.S. rate hikes could hit highly dollarized emerging market banks -Moody's

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Banks in Latin America and emerging Europe are most exposed to dollarization among developing economies, making them vulnerable to weaker local currencies and increasing withdrawals in the face of tighter U.S. monetary policy, Moody's said on Monday.

Interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve are likely to slow capital flows to emerging markets, weakening countries' currencies and economic growth, and potentially triggering credit risk at highly dollarized banks, Moody's said.

Uruguay's steady depreciation of the local peso and high inflation have lifted the country to the top of Moody's list of dollarized countries at 74% of deposits - a trend that is there to stay. Savings from non-residents, mostly neighboring Argentinahas seen locals grapple with high inflation and a weakening currency, will see dollar deposits rise to 65% by end-2022, up from 47% in 2020 and 63% last year.

Foreign-currency deposits fell sharply in Argentina, from 40% in 2019 to 16% in 2021 due to an erosion in confidence after the 2019 elections.

 

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