David Rosenberg: How to invest in equities based on signals from the bond market

As such, we believe investors should adjust down their return expectations accordingly, and focus on defensives , which have been shown to be big outperformers during similar environments in the past.

With this in mind, we looked at stock-market returns — including sectors — in the year following similar conditions in the past. As mentioned, the stock market as a whole performs very poorly, with the S&P 500 falling 1.8 per cent, on average, over the next 12 months. For reference, this compares to an average 12-month return of 7.6 per cent, representing nearly 10 percentage points of underperformance.

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