Pain not over for U.S. bond market but some see yields nearing their peaks

Interest rate jitters keep hammering the U.S. bond market but some investors are starting to think a possible slowdown in price pressure as well as support from yield-seeking buyers could soon put a ceiling - or at least a pause - on rising yields.

“We’re probably getting closer to the peak in terms of yields,” said John Madziyire, a senior portfolio manager and head of US Treasuries and Inflation within Vanguard’s Fixed Income Group. Brian Reynolds, chief markets strategist at Reynolds Strategy, pointed to 2018 and 2011 as “two highly emotional events in bond market history,” with 2018 marking investors being “frightened that the Fed was going to tighten to infinity” while 2011 was the year when the United States lost its triple-A rating.

“The momentum in the upwards push in interest rates seems to be slowing a bit,” said Mike Vogelzang, chief investment officer at CAPTRUST, also pointing to relatively stable yields on two-year U.S. government bonds, with prices having seemingly reflected the Fed’s planned rate hikes this year. “The curve was pretty flat a month ago and it’s now steepened out ... generally a steeper curve is healthy,” said Eric Stein, co-head of Global Fixed Income and chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

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