The weak market conditions that prompted Canfor's announcement this week of production curtailments at its B.C. and Alberta sawmills will last until about midway through next year, two forest industry watchers are predicting.
Starting December 19, curtailments lasting from one to four weeks will be invoked. In a statement, Canfor CEO Don Kayne cited "significant decrease in demand for solid wood products and challenging economic conditions" as the reasons. He said that's a function of the difference in the way stumpage works in the two provinces. Whereas it's adjusted on a monthly basis in Alberta, it's updated annually and quarterly in B.C. creating a lag effect.
Kosman, who owns Madison's Lumber Reporter, predicted the price will "stabilize" at $600-$800 but it will take awhile to reach that mark and hedged her bet by saying it will take until halfway through 2023 to know whether the so-called "new normal" will be reached.
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