Fed should not rely too much on market reaction to guide policy, Goolsbee says

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The Federal Reserve must supplement traditional government data and readings from financial markets with real-time, on-the-ground observations of economic conditions if it is to make good policy, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday.

"This is especially true when things are as strange and up in the air as they have been through much of the pandemic times," Goolsbee said in the text of his first public remarks since taking over as head of the Fed regional bank on Dec. 1 from Charles Evans.

"It is a danger and a mistake for policymakers to rely too heavily on market reactions" like stock and bond market gyrations that "tell us which way the markets want the Fed to move," he said. Financial markets increasingly are pricing in expectations that the U.S. central bank will raise its benchmark overnight interest rate in coming months to a 5.25%-5.50% range, from the current 4.50%-4.75% range, as it seeks to curb stubbornly high inflation. That's slightly higher than where Fed policymakers in December signaled they would need to take the policy rate.

 

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We will go when it's time

We would all be better if the Fed was more concerned with the market reaction on Main Street rather than Wall Street. Wall Street reacts and then screws the consumer with high credit card rates, mortgage rates, small business loan rates, etc. React to that Fed.

Are you kidding? Who do you think 'the FED' works for? It's not a gov't agency, as most people think. It's a bunch of banks trying to increase profits.

How about artificial intelligence, Ike treating it like a supervised learning problem with a very limited number of target outputs, presumably some measure of inflation and output, and using ensemble method where each Reserve Bank inputs one model

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'The market has gone too far:' Chief global strategist predicts when the Fed will cut ratesMarkets have not fully priced in the Fed's next moves, Seema Shah of Principal Global Investors told CNBC. Bullish. When this is near . Bullish My pea brain compared to their enormous intellect, doesn't understand, how raising rates, taking more of our money in cred card & mortgage fees, to banks as profit, us poorer is THE fix-all. Biden says '400 more billionaires have been created in the past 2 yrs'. Genius. It may rain soon. I’m just not sure when.
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