Kitco daily macro-economic/business digest - April 27

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Norfolk Southern says the Ohio train derailment in February could cost the railroad almost $400 million. Meanwhile, Union Pacific, Canadian National and Mexico's Ferromex will cooperate on a cross-border rail service aimed at competing with the newly formed Canadian Pacific Kansas City. •Preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP growth. The consensus call is for GDP to have grown at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.8%, following a 2.6% increase in the fourth quarter, and 2.1% for all of 2022.

Europe's commercial property market slumped to its lowest level in 11 years in the first quarter of 2023 as concerns over the economy, banking sector and higher interest rates hit dealmaking. Data from MSCI, an analyst, showed that investors made deals worth €36.5 billion in the three months to March, 62% lower than the same period last year. Paris overtook London as the region's investment hotspot.• Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was weaker ahead of the U.S.

—Europe is taking steps to turn off one of the last significant supplies of Russian fossil fuels, seaborne shipments of liquefied natural gas. The WSJ notes: The question is whether the move would hurt Europe more than Russia. Because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, European governments last year slashed their longtime reliance on Russian fossil fuels, banning imports of its crude and diesel and seeking out new suppliers to replace its copious flows of natural gas.

McCarthy comments. In a news conference after the vote, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said the House is the"only body that passed anything… So right now, this is the only place that has lifted the debt limit." Timing of the debt deadline murky. The Treasury Department has warned a default is possible as soon as June, while the Congressional Budget Office has said it could be as late as September. Goldman Sachs said Wednesday that the default deadline for the U.S. government will come in July, not in June as some had feared. An early summer deadline cannot be ruled out because of unexpected changes in federal tax revenue.

 

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