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Roubini Warns Stocks Risk 10% Drop as Stagflation Worries Mount

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(Bloomberg) -- Brittle financial markets and their vulnerability to swings in data are troubling observers gathered by Lake Como just as investors take fright at the prospect of stagflation in Europe.

Nouriel Roubini warned of a potential over-valuation in stocks as the Cernobbio Forum began in the northern Italian resort on Friday. His fellow economist Mohamed El-Erian said investors have become too fixated on each economic statistic without seeing the bigger picture.

He spoke after the label of stagflation, describing the toxic combination of lackluster growth and untamed consumer prices seen in the 1970s, re-emerged this week as data showing inflation stuck above 5% in the euro zone revived investor anxiety that first surfaced in 2022. For El-Erian, risks have fragmented between regions, with the US vulnerable to “financial fragility” from commercial real estate woes, while Europe contends with the danger of stagflation and China confronts the threat of deflation. The US challenges may dissipate over time with gradual refinancing, he said.

France’s Europe minister Laurence Boone — a former chief economist at the OECD — was even “quite optimistic” that such an outcome can be averted because inflation is receding, albeit slowly.

 

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