The dollar has risen lately to a key level. And If it breaks above that, the stock market could drop.
It’s also reflective of a safe-haven trade, since the dollar is the global reserve currency, one that comes as economies around the globe suffer, something that can also pressure U.S. stocks. Another indication that the stronger dollar hasn’t much harmed the market yet is seen in stocks of companies vulnerable to a stronger dollar. Caterpillar and Micron Technology derive about 60% and 50%, respectively, of their sales outside the U.S., and yet the shares of those companies are up 16% and 13%, respectively, since the dollar began its ascent.
Newsletter Sign-up But with the dollar so close to breaking out, the S&P 500 and dollar-exposed stocks alike are indeed vulnerable. If the dollar index were to break above 105, it would mean there weren’t many sellers, and buying pressure could send the index back to the 112 multidecade high set in October 2022. Even if it doesn’t reach the mark, a more-expensive dollar could be a burden.
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