The government of Canada ten-year bond yield was 2.8 per cent on April 25 and it’s now 4.2 per cent in Wednesday trading, almost 140 basis points higher. On April 25 the S&P/TSX Utilities index was 2751 and now it’s 21.2 per cent lower at 2167.
Holders of utilities stocks are faced with a dilemma. They can do nothing, collect a dividend somewhere near the sector average of 5.31 per cent, and stomach the suddenly-volatile stock prices. Or, they can sell the stocks and buy a ten-year bond with a suddenly-attractive yield that is entirely risk free as long as they hold it to maturity.
The vertical move in global bond yields was caused in large part by the realization that major central banks weren’t kidding when they warned of ‘higher for longer’ interest rates. There had previously been a widespread market belief that interest rate cuts were in store in early 2024.