Until recently, the broad consensus among forecasters was that copper would enjoy a comfortable surplus for the next few years, before tightening sharply later in the decade as supply struggles to keep up with surging demand for the energy transition.
The expectation for a looser market in the near term has been reflected in copper prices, which drifted sideways for most of this year, while inventory levels on the London Metal Exchange bounced back from perilously low levels to hit a two-year high last month. In early October, the International Copper Study Group said it expects a surplus of 467,000 tons next year — its largest forecast for a glut since 2014.Now, the news that Panama intends to shut down one of the world’s biggest and newest copper mines threatens to disrupt that trajectory. Copper prices have risen about 6% since the protests erupted in Panama, and touched a 10-week high earlier on Wednesday before retreating.First Quantum Minerals Ltd.’s $10 billion Cobre Panama operation produces about
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