Commodities had their best quarter in almost three years, driven by supply concerns and optimism over demand. Investors, though, might not want to get too cocky.
In the first quarter, total returns for the Bloomberg Commodity Index of 23 raw materials rose more than 6 percent, the most since the three months ended in June 2016. Crude oil paced the advance, while nickel led gains in industrial metals. A surge in January propelled the index amid bets on resilient global economic and signs of tight supplies in many markets.
“The fundamental concerns remain on the supply side, with constraints for many commodities,” said Darwei Kung, a money manager at DWS Investment Management Americas Inc.’s $2.8 billion Enhanced Commodity Strategy Fund. “Capital investment necessary to expand capacity at a faster pace than demand was just not spent for the last several years.”Oil prices stormed back in the first quarter, recovering from worries about a global oversupply that pushed crude into a nosedive to end 2018.
“We are only bullish on oil for the next two-three months, after which we become bearish” on the outlook for increased supplies from the Permian Basin and elsewhere, he said.
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