Q1 S&P 500 Earnings: Another Normal Earnings Season in the Offing?

Per LSEG, only 29 companies have reported their Q1 ’24 earnings so far, and the big banks that reported on Friday morning April 12th, won’t be in the numbers so to speak until Monday, April 15th or Tuesday, April 16th. Another 41 companies are expected to report this week.EPS growth has fallen to +2.7% as of Friday, April 12th, ’24, , which might alarm some, but that pattern is pretty typical.

The “expected” quarterly growth rates follow a typical pattern, like the above. Ed Yardeni has long called this the “fish-hook effect”. Quarterly growth rates start higher 3 – 6 months out, as the actual quarter gets set to be reported the quarterly S&P 500 growth rate bottoms and then stabilizes or move 3% – 5% higher typically for that quarter’s expected growth.

This performance chart shows how JNJ has underperformed the S&P 500 for the last 13 years but is marginally ahead of the S&P 500 since January 1, 2000. Because of the few companies having reported Q1 ’24 earnings, the upside surprise factor isn’t yet relevant. Last week it was +20%, this week it was +13% for EPS, but take that with a grain of salt;

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