Venezuela’s revolutionary socialist President Nicolás Maduro is likely to win re-election next month by hook or by crook, US intelligence agencies believe. This may alarm the longtime authoritarian ruler’s opponents, but some investors sense an opportunity. That might seem odd. A victory in tarnished elections by a Moscow ally who has overseen a 75 per cent collapse in GDP, a bond default and a dive in oil production would not normally be the stuff of market dreams.
Washington responded to Maduro’s crackdown by reimposing broad oil sanctions on Venezuela in April. But in a less well-publicised move, it has granted exemptions to individual foreign oil and gas companies for specific deals, allowing production to rise. Chevron has been the main beneficiary, but Repsol, BP, Shell and French independent Maurel & Prom have all received licences.
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