later joins the show to elaborate why he believes the US economy isn't a textbook case of being in a Goldilocks environment, but is actually reflective of a"Winnie the Pooh" environment.We are giving you the ultimate investing playbook, help tune out the noise and make the right moves for your money.
He's kind of like really voicing investor sentiment right now is we'll see what's going to happen because there's a lot of uncertainty, even though the market right now is reflecting strength, there is still the risk of further price cuts ahead and there is still further question on fundamentals.I wouldn't necessarily be overly concerned that the labor market is, is heating back up as a result of these, these data.
When you take a look at the dow, we're also looking at gains there up just around 89 points as of right now.But again, we're seeing a bit of cooling here as yields pull back after brushing up against that four or five level yesterday.Financials not too far behind, but you've got consumer discretionary by far the leader in today's trading action.
Are we slowing to something that's more worrying, you know, stalling out in the economy or perhaps even a recession or is it going from a very robust growth uh environment that we had last year back down to just something that's far more normal?I think if you look at at this morning's jolts data, you mentioned job openings were higher.The quits rate has stabilized at somewhat low levels over the past six months.
You know, that is being driven in part by the drawdown in excess savings that we've had, particularly at the bottom half of the income distribution. And the labor market is still chugging along here, you know, despite the slowing that we've seen, so there is definitely some divergences in the data that we're seeing.
But when you take into account what he is saying or what he did say, the fact that the labor market is cooling, the fact that he is very much encouraged by some of the progress that we have seen on inflation.Yeah, our baseline is that you get one cut this year and then it happens in December. The other way to get to a rate cut is that you have a weakening in the labor market that's unexpected.
And so really, they'll be data dependent, you know, essentially if they get very good inflation data over the next few months, that will certainly improve the prospects for a September rate cut.Biden and Trump have both both embraced that.Matt, yeah, I think from an impact on the economy perspective, it really matters.
And if we get an election outcome that promises fiscal stimulus via, via tax cuts and inflationary policies through, through tariffs, it will be less likely that the fed cuts rates immediately next year.We are just getting started here on market domination and coming up, Tesla shares getting a lift after the ev makers surprise the street with better than expected deliveries in Q two.Plus we'll discuss some of the top trending tickers on Yahoo finance for the fourth of July vacation.
Uh some of the delivery results, not only from Tesla but Rian Neo XP le Byd indicate that that uh that vehicles are being sold at these levels. Um And I left the plan saying, ok, at least, you know, there are things being done in terms of training, uh measuring employee efficiency, slowing the work down.But that's all part of the process of digging themselves out of this hole.There are those associated with Boeing and then when you talk about how obviously it's going to take time here for manufacturing to improve any sense of just more.
So Eli Lilly there, I mean, you take a look at chairs pairing some of their earlier losses have been under pressure that them along with uh Novo Nordisk on the heels of this Op Ed that we got from President Biden and also from Senator Sanders targeting the cost of G LP one drugs.And just in terms of how big of a medium overhang this could potentially be if, if we do continue to see this type of pressure.
It's too complex and that's the equivalent of what Novo Nordisk also said that they're disappointed that's a very difficult and complex problem that's being over simplified for political purposes. But again, when you take a look, even at those numbers, yes, it is coming in better than expectations, but they're still not delivering a significant number of these are getting, um, I here for this for a significant number of these trucks.So again, even when you take a look at that chart year to date, you're looking at a stock that's off 69% nice pop today, but it has been hammered.
Obviously, we talk about Sky Dance when we talk about Paramount overall here and how that how those talks kind of fell apart uh most recently. I will confess George, I do have a five year old at home, but I I am not, I'm not that up to speed on, Winnie the pooh, walk us through what you mean there, George, what, what is the Winnie Pooh environment?
Uh If people think that either the, the Fed or, uh, any other exotic, this body can create a, a backdrop that gives us either Goldilocks or Winnie the pooh from now until the end of time, it's not gonna happen.and simply by the evolution of the stop clock is right, twice every 24 hours we are headed toward, I think a period of time where you're gonna get something like a recession or a recession f that is going to dampen profits and probably hurt the stock market at the same time.
Uh We are probably going to see a period of time when there the, the fed uh suppresses short term rates but where in the fairly near future, uh there are fears that uh a Trump administration or a second Biden administration will be fiscally profligate and that will put upward pressure on yields in the longer term part of the market.
They're a platform, they're all things A I and Hans, you know, I'm assuming I, if you're bullish on NVIDIA two Hans, you must be also then bullish on just the bigger mega trend of A I that, that you must think, you know.And yes, Jensen Wong is right when he talks about, you know how the next industrial revolution has begun, Hans.
Yeah, I think that uh uh NVIDIA competitors and NVIDIA observers and countries get worried about uh a company that is grasping or, or capturing all of this value.The, the US basically with these restrictions on China, 20 25% of the business is basically gone and they're still basically sold out.
So you know, guys like intel and even a MD, if A and D didn't have a GP U, for example, they'd be in big trouble.And so the next wave of where a value capture for NVIDIA, if you look at say the cloud, for example, are networking areas storage areas. There's been more and more talk about some of the competitors within the space, even when you take a look at Mikron, that has certainly gotten a lot of tension here.
And yet the Russell 2000 small and mid caps really haven't done anything to participate in that rally and you go back five or six years and you've basically had sideways action in small caps.So just divide one by the other and we're at the lowest levels we've seen in more than 20 years. But as always, anytime there is a valuation story in the market, you have to think about what it means, short term and long term valuation is not necessarily a signal for near term out performance, but there's reasons why small caps are relatively cheap compared to their large cap counterparts.What do you expect versus large caps?
So when thinking about allocating to small and mid caps, I think of a lot of allocators and a lot of advisers are trying to balance what they see as an economic cycle that might be favorable to small caps. So something that O US M the ETF Alps offers does is it screens for companies with high ro a so profitability, low leverage, so low net debt to EBITA companies that pay dividends have grown their dividends and have strong dividend coverage.
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