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What the spring real estate market will tell Canada’s big banks about their whole year

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Green shoots offer hope for growth in residential mortgages that has so far been underwhelming

Canada’s big banks are eagerly watching the country’s real estate markets for evidence of a rebound this spring, but the mixed signals the sector has delivered so far are unlikely to move the needle for lenders, industry watchers say.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz noted this phenomenon in a speech on Monday, saying that “some previously frothy markets are still adjusting to a significant shift in price expectations, while other markets appear to be operating in a manner consistent with market fundamentals.” That good news was tempered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver having reported last week that residential home sales in the region fell last month by 29.1 per cent year-over-year.

“Looking ahead, the spring activity should serve as a good guide on what to expect in terms of consumer growth for bank fiscal 2019,” Theriault added.

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