The currency market is waiting for Jackson Hole

In the past, Fed chairs have occasionally used this symposium as an opportunity to announce important policy changes. Now, it is common knowledge that the Fed could soon lower its key interest rate for the first time since the interest rate hikes of 2022/23 — that is, that another policy change is imminent. And that is why Jackson Hole is even more of a topic for the market than it is every year, Commerzbank’s Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes.

In other words, what I like to call the ‘policy response function’.” “In this sense, it is not about whether Fed Chair Jay Powell will announce the long-awaited interest rate cuts in Jackson Hole. And it's not about the initial rate-cutting pace in September, November and December. It should come as no surprise that after the surprising US labor market report on August 2, interest rate expectations for this year have recovered, but the USD has continued to lose ground.

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